A predictive model was developed to describe the incidence of disease following exposure of animals to differing amounts of fibers of different dissolution rates. It expresses mathematically the concept that fibers that dissolve more rapidly reside for a shorter time in the body and result in a lower incidence of disease. This model has no adjustable parameters and thus may be tested by using it to predict the results of animal studies that have been carried out and comparing the predicted with the actual disease incidence. The animations below show the verification of the model by applying it to three different diseases in rats by two different routes of administration. This research was published in 1996 in a paper that you may read here.
Click on the image to view the animation.
|Fibrosis following chronic inhalation of fibers by rats (103 kB of animated gif's)|
|Tumors following IP injection of fibers in rats (99 kB of animated gif's)|
|Lung tumors following chronic inhalation of fibers by rats (83 kB of animated gif's)|